Under the Nuclear Shadow: China’s Information-Age Weapons in International Security

Book Description

How can states use military force to achieve their political aims without triggering a catastrophic nuclear war? Among the states facing this dilemma of fighting limited wars, only China has given information-age weapons such a prominent role. While other countries have preferred the traditional options of threatening to use nuclear weapons or fielding capabilities for decisive conventional military victories, China has instead chosen to rely on offensive cyber operations, counterspace capabilities, and precision conventional missiles to coerce its adversaries. In Under the Nuclear Shadow, Fiona Cunningham examines this distinctive aspect of China’s post–Cold War deterrence strategy, developing an original theory of “strategic substitution.” When crises with the United States highlighted the inadequacy of China’s existing military capabilities, Cunningham argues, China pursued information-age weapons that promised to rapidly provide credible leverage against adversaries.

Drawing on hundreds of original Chinese language sources and interviews with security experts in China, Cunningham provides a rare and candid glimpse from Beijing into the information-age technologies that are reshaping how states gain leverage in the twenty-first century. She offers unprecedented insights into the trajectory of China’s military modernization, as she details the strengths and weaknesses of China’s strategic substitution approach. Under the Nuclear Shadow also looks ahead at the uncertain future of China’s strategic substitution approach and briefly explores too how other states might seize upon the promise of emerging technologies to address weaknesses in their own military strategies.

To order a copy, or for more information, see the book’s webpage on the Princeton University Press website.

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PODCAST and Book Events

At the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, I discussed my book with Pranay Vaddi from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Mallory Stewart, former assistant secretary of state, and Tong Zhao of Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Program on March 11, 2025. Click here for a recording of the hybrid event.

At Georgetown University’s Initiative for U.S.-China Dialogue, Evan Medeiros and I discussed my book on October 30, 2024. To watch the recording of the live event click here.

I spoke to Eleonora Mattiacci from Amherst College about my book on the New Books Network podcast, January 9, 2025.

Bonnie Glaser and I discussed China’s nuclear strategy and strategic substitution on the German Marshall Fund’s Global China podcast, March 18, 2025.

Photo (above): posters promoting recruitment for the Chinese military from late 2015.